What do you actually do when the headlines are dominated by war, oil shocks, and market volatility?
Most people fall into one of two camps. They either tune it out completely and hope for the best, or they react emotionally and start making financial decisions based on fear. Neither approach tends to end well.
What people are really looking for in moments like this is clarity. And that can be hard to find when oil prices are swinging by the hour and global uncertainty is feeding directly into the cost of doing business.
Jono Elliot, Managing Director at Collins SBA, has seen enough market cycles to know that the immediate “noise” rarely reflects the long-term reality.
“Market volatility is normal. Significant shocks happen regularly,” he says.
“War is absolutely a shock to the system because it creates uncertainty, and uncertainty is the primary driver of volatility.”
What This Means for Australian Businesses
While the conflict is geographically distant, its economic impact is not.
The Strait of Hormuz carries around 20% of the world’s oil supply. Any disruption there flows quickly through to global energy prices, and Australia, as a net fuel importer, feels that almost immediately.
Higher oil prices translate into:
• Increased fuel and freight costs
• Higher input costs across construction, agriculture, and manufacturing
• Rising logistics costs for importers and exporters
• Margin pressure for businesses unable to pass on price increases
For many Australian businesses, this shows up quickly in cash flow. Transport becomes more expensive. Suppliers increase prices. Contracts become harder to price with certainty.
And then comes the second-order effect: inflation.
Inflation and the RBA
Rising energy costs are one of the fastest ways to push inflation higher.
If oil prices remain elevated, it can feed into higher inflation and increase the risk of further interest rate increases if inflation proves persistent.
For businesses, this matters. Higher or sustained interest rates impact:
• Borrowing costs
• Investment decisions
• Consumer spending and demand
In short, what starts as a geopolitical event can quickly flow through to everyday business conditions in Australia.
The Market Reaction vs Reality
Despite all of this, Jono’s core message remains grounded in experience.
“No one knows how long this will last. A key concern is the Strait of Hormuz, where a significant portion of global oil flows.
But while things may get worse in the short term, I’m optimistic this is a temporary shock rather than a prolonged disruption. Because every major economy depends on energy security, either as a source of revenue and/or to keep the wheels of their economy turning. Once the situation stabilises and fear subsides, markets typically recover.”
This isn’t about downplaying the seriousness of the situation. It’s about recognising the pattern. Markets react quickly. Economies adapt more gradually.
Shocks are temporary. Bad decisions are not.
What concerns Jono more than the conflict itself is how investors and business owners respond to it.
When uncertainty peaks, it often leads to reactive decision-making, such as cutting investment too aggressively, holding excess cash, or stepping away from long-term plans.
“We help people make smart decisions,” Jono says.
“But just as importantly, we help them avoid poor ones. Acting on emotion and effectively scoring an ‘own goal’ with your wealth does happen. That’s why your adviser is there, to be an objective sounding board and help you focus on what you can control.”
History is consistent. The GFC, COVID-19, geopolitical shocks, those who stayed disciplined and focused on long-term strategy were better positioned than those who reacted to short-term fear.
Collins SBA’s investment philosophy is built around exactly this. A long-term, risk-managed approach that does not react to headlines. Portfolios are reviewed against the relative value of each asset class, and allocations are adjusted when the evidence supports it, not when the news cycle demands it.
For clients with portfolios aligned with Collins SBA’s investment philosophy, Jono’s message is simple: there is no need to panic. The uncertainty and therefore volatility presently is high, but it will pass. Talk to your adviser of what the situation could mean specifically to your investments.
The question worth asking right now
For business owners, the more useful conversation is not about predicting what oil prices will do next. It is about getting clear on your own financial position, because that is the one thing you can actually control.
“When something like this happens, people start paying attention,” Jono says. “They watch the news. They worry. But the only useful question is: what can you actually control? For a business owner, that starts with your cash flow.”
This time of year, many Tasmanian businesses are moving into slower months. Tourism, hospitality, and construction all tend to cool as winter approaches. That makes cash reserves and cash flow planning more important, not less.
Do you have enough set aside to cover wages, super, and tax obligations through the quieter period? Is there a GST or PAYG payment on the horizon that might catch you off guard?
If those questions feel uncomfortable to answer, that is worth paying attention to.
“If a tax bill comes as a surprise, you are not in control of your cash flow,” Jono says. “And when everything around you feels uncertain, the last thing you want is uncertainty in your own numbers.”
Collins SBA’s tax planning service is, at its core, a cash flow management tool. Clients who use it go into uncertain periods knowing exactly what is coming. The surprises have been accounted for. That is what it feels like to have real control over your financial position.
In summary, for business owners, stay focused on fundamentals:
• Cash flow management
• Cost control
• Strategic pricing
• Long-term investment decisions
Having someone in your corner
There is one more thing worth saying. A good financial adviser does not just help you build wealth over time. They help you protect it when the temptation to react is strongest.
In moments when fear is loudest, having someone in your corner who can calmly separate the noise from what actually matters is genuinely valuable. Someone who has seen this before. Someone who can look at your specific situation and give you a straight answer. That is the confidence that comes from having the right advice, not just the right intentions.
If you are a Collins SBA financial planning client and you have questions about your portfolio, please reach out to your adviser. That is exactly what they are there for.
If you are a Collins SBA accounting client and you have been thinking about whether financial planning might be right for you, now is a good time to have that conversation. You can call our team on 1300 264 722. We are here to help.
A note: This article contains general information only and does not constitute financial advice. Please speak with a qualified adviser to discuss your individual circumstances.
